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This is my first caucus and I can't wait. While I will be actively participating a week from tomorrow night, I couldn't help but share some of my foresight for what I think Colorado voters will do Feb 5.
5 Reasons Why Obama beats Hillary:
1. Young educated voters. This crowd has been attracted to Obama throughout his campaign and they have voted for him in the preciding caucus', specifically the college-aged voters in Iowa. There are also many young educated voters in this state eager to particpate.
2. The caucus format: Which requires voters to attend meetings to express support for their candidate, plays to the Obama campaign's strength in grass-roots organizing that it honed in the Iowa caucuses. And the momentum from the South Carolina victory will matter. People love to vote for a winner.
3. Obama's been campaigning heavily in Colorado, for quite some time. He is coming to Colorado on January 30 for a rally, while Bill Clinton will be in Denver the same day for Hillary - at a fundraising event. This will create a lot of postive press for Obama, and will matter to Colo. Democratic voters'. Moreoever, Obama has just opened 5 more offices in rural areas - which brings his office total in Colorado to 12. Hillary has just one office in Denver
4. The endorsement battle: Both have prominent Colorado Democratic backers. With Obama having the support of Former Denver Mayor Pena and Former Senator Gary Hart. While Clinton has the backing of Former Denver Mayor Webb and Congresswoman DeGette. This is a virual tie. Thus nullavoiding the issue. This is good for Obama, because voters will be concerned with other things.
5. The Latino Vote: This is the wild card for Obama. Hillary will win the majority of votes from the Latio population, but if Obama can get at least 30% in Colorado, which is a possibility, that will push him past Hillary Tuesday night. This is where some endorsements may matter - such as Pena and Ted Kennedy's recent endorsement. For an interesting perspective check here.
5 Reasons Why Romney Beats McCain:
1. The Economy - The new #1 issue and Republicans will go with Romeny's business experience, much like they did in Michigan. McCain's late push for cuts on coporate taxes may help him, however Romney wins out on this issue, even in the mind of indpendents.
2. Immigration - Next to the economy, this is the most important issue for Colorado Republicans, and Colorado voters in general. McCain's failed legislation which has been painted as amnesty by his rivals helps Republican voters side with Romney's "responsible" immigration.
3. Colorado Endorsements for Romeny matter: Romeny's prominent Repub backers include Senator Wayne Allard and Former Gov Bill Owens. Colo Pub's love these two guys and they value their input. Also Colo State Senator Josh Penry supports Mitt. Penry is an up and coming State legislator and future star for the Republican party. He is respected throughout Western Colorado and has gained more notoriety on the Front Range since being elected to the State Leg.
4. Being Mormon won't hinder or help Romney...too much: There is a large Mormon population in Western Colorado that will vote for Romney, and some Colo Springs evangelicals may back Huckabee, but right now, it's all about the economy and immigration.
5. 2000 Salt Lake Winter Olympics: Romeny's was a big player in getting the Olympics in Utah and was a bigger player when the Olympics were going on. This brought huge profits to Utah and regional business' - this will be seen as a positive in the eyes of voters.
This is my subtle attempt of policital punditry. Whether or not my insight proves true, come Tuesday night, I'll be apart of the process, and that's what really counts.
